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De verdad, alguien se plantea todavía que China y los países emergentes no serán en un futuro nuestro principal cliente?
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Increased imports, rising prices behind January's 53.5% decline
BEIJING - China's trade surplus will continue to fall in the coming months after hitting a nine-month low in January amid increased imports in the run-up to the lunar new year holidays and surging commodity prices, economists said.
The surplus fell 53.5 percent to $6.46 billion last month, the General Administration of Customs said on its website on Monday. Exports rose 37.7 percent to $150.73 billion from a year earlier while imports climbed 51 percent to $144.27 billion.
The surplus figures came hours after Tokyo confirmed China had surpassed Japan to become the world's second biggest economy.
Economists said the trade situation is challenging as the uncertain economic outlook for major economies, including the United States, Japan and the European Union, poses difficulties for China's exports.
"The trend shows that China's trade surplus is in decline," said Huo Jianguo, director of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, under the Ministry of Commerce.
China's trade surplus has narrowed in recent months as the government has tried to reduce its reliance on exports by boosting imports and domestic consumption after the world economic slowdown.
"As long as China's imports grow faster than exports, China's trade surplus problem will be solved in the next few years," said Huo.
China's annual surplus figure may drop below $100 billion in the next two to three years, he said.
The lower-than-estimated trade surplus is also expected to ease pressure from the US for greater yuan appreciation as a way of addressing the trade imbalance between the two countries.
Analysts said strong consumer demand before the Spring Festival pushed up imports.
"We believe the New Year contributed to increasing imports," said Chang Jian, an analyst from Barclays Capital.The value of China's foreign trade in January rose 43.9 percent year-on-year to $295.01 billion, the customs said on Monday. Imports and exports rose as businesses accelerated shipments in advance of the two-week holiday period, it said.
Higher commodity prices have also played a big role in boosting the cost of China's imports, as prices for raw materials such as iron ore and copper are at, or close to, record highs.
According to figures from the customs, the price of iron ore, one of China's major imports, surged 66.1 percent to $151.4 per ton last month. The price of imported soya also increased 20.4 percent to $558.1 per ton.
"We expect world commodity prices to remain high and that will push up the cost of China's imports in the coming months," said Lu Zhiming, an analyst from the Bank of Communications.
He estimated China's trade surplus this year will drop to $150 billion, from $183.1 billion last year.
The value of trade between China and the EU, the country's largest trading partner, increased 30.5 percent year-on-year to $45.97 billion in January, according to customs figures, while the value of Sino-US trade increased 39.2 percent year-on-year to $36.87 billion.
China emerged as the leading market for US agricultural exports, according to statistics released by the US Department of Agriculture on Feb 11. But figures from the US Department of Commerce on the same day also showed that the deficit with China rose 20.4 percent last year.
Source: China Daily - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-02/15/content_12010526.htm
BEIJING - China still has a long way to go to improve its economy, despite formally overtaking Japan as the world's second largest economy, experts said.
Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) reached $5.47 trillion last year, compared to $5.88 trillion for China, Japan's Cabinet Office said on Monday.
Japan became the world's second largest economy, after the United States, in 1968 on the back of its post-war recovery.
China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world's third biggest economy.
"It is not a surprise that China overtook Japan," said Lu Zhengwei, senior economist with the Shanghai-based Industrial Bank.
However, economists pointed out that China's per capita GDP was only about 10 percent of Japan's.
"We should not overestimate our GDP figure as China's population is 1.3 billion, 10 times bigger than Japan's," said Yi Xianrong, economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top think tank.
China's per capita GDP was about $4,300 in 2010, and income levels have been falling behind economic growth for years.
Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in January that the country has a huge population, a weak economic foundation, few resources and many people are mired in poverty.
"Therefore, while we take note of our expanding economic size and strength, we should also soberly understand that China remains a developing nation."
The World Bank estimates that more than 100 million Chinese people - nearly the size of Japan's entire population - live on less than $2 a day.
The China Youth Daily described China's expansion as an "empty happiness" as the country's economic development was at the expense of cheap labor and environmental degradation, while the quality of life, including education, social security and healthcare, still lags far behind developed countries.
Yuan Gangming, research fellow at the Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University, said that in the next three to five years, China is likely to maintain a growth rate between 8 and 10 percent.
However, for an improved quality of life and healthy, sustained growth, the country must invest more in areas such as human resources, the underdeveloped western regions, and social security, he said.
Zheng Xinli, permanent vice-chairman of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, also said the country should continue its reforms and improve its economic structure to avoid the "middle-income trap".
The term was coined by the World Bank to describe stagnation in a country when its per capita GDP reached $3,000.
"In the past 30 years, China developed because of reform and opening-up. In the coming two decades, we need more reforms to further unleash the potential of development," he said.
He predicted urbanization will be the biggest driving force for China's economy.
One person moving into a city can create economic value of 100,000 yuan, he said. In the next 10 years, 200 million Chinese people will move into cities and towns, with a potential to add 20 trillion yuan to the economy over the decade, he estimated.
Sustained economic growth in China also helps other economies in the world, including Japan.
The Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said: "We welcome China's economic advancement as a neighboring country," according to Kyodo News.
Japan's economy has benefited from China's rapid growth, initially as businesses shifted production here to take advantage of lower costs, and as local incomes rose, by tapping an increasingly lucrative market for Japanese goods.
Source: China daily - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-02/15/content_12010939.htm
To experience first-hand the potential of Barcelona's design sector and pursue potential agreements with local designers. This was the aim of the delegation of 18 Chinese businessmen who visited Barcelona on the 17th January. The visit, promoted by the Barcelona City Council and Barcelona Design Centre (BCD), and coordinated by Shanghai National Design Center, is the result of a series of actions carried out over the last few months to strengthen business relationships between the city and the Asian country.
The visit included a presentation of the city of Barcelona as international design capital, a guided tour with Barcelona Design Tour, including some of the most notable buildings from the 22@ district, and a tour of the most iconic clothes shops in the city.
In keeping with the spirit of the visit of Chinese businessmen, and with the aim of boosting the city's fashion and design sector, Barcelona Council recently sealed an agreement with the municipal government of Wenzhou for the creation of a logistics centre for textile companies from the Shanghai area.
Source: Barcelona city council.
Barcelona heads the Spanish exports ranking. According to the latest report from the Barcelona City Council's Commission for Economic Promotion, Employment and Knowledge, 20.5% of the Spanish state's exports over the course of 2010 came from the province of Barcelona. The report also states that a 16.9% increase in exports during the first eleven months of the year, which represented 34,927.25 million euros worth of revenue, helped the Catalan economy grow by 4.3%.
Specifically, the increase in exports is believed to have been driven by a rise in sales to emerging economies such as South Africa (+68.4%), Brazil (+49%) and China (+32.6%). Furthermore, the technology sector accounted for some 59% of these exports.
Leaders in entrepreneurship
The City Council report also reflects the strength of entrepreneurial activity in Barcelona, which established itself over 2010 as the Spanish urban area with the highest number of start-ups, with a ratio of 3.2 new companies per 1000 residents. During the first eleven months of the year, 14% of the new businesses set up in Spain were established in the province of Barcelona.
Source: Barcelona city council.