China 2025 - De la fabricación a la innovación

Comentábamos en marzo de 2011 en un post dedicado al crecimiento de china la necesidad de este país por crecer de forma sostenible y garantizando aspectos como la seguridad social, la gestión del medioambiente, y ahora se suma, después de unos años, el descenso de la competitividad de su modelo de fabricación.

Dicen los libros de márqueting que cuando escoges un posicionamiento tienes que hacerlo con la seguridad de que eres el mejor en ello; por ejemplo, si quieres competir en precio, no sólo debes tener buenos precios, sino asegurarte también de que eres el que tiene los costes más bajos porque de lo contrario, alguien de la competencia llegará y se llevará tu mercado.

Dentro de la complejidad que es un país como China, algo parecido le ha pasado, ya que en los últimos años se está produciendo una revolución económica y social "previsible" pero que conlleva una serie de estrategias a largo plazo como la que plantea el gigante asiático en su plan China 2025.

Una economía que pueda hacer frente al incremento de la calidad de vida de sus trabajadores, y por tanto al incremento de los costes salariales y a la reducción de su competitividad manufacturera tal y como la conocemos actualmente, debiendo pasar a un modelo de valor añadido donde la innovación (actualmente la inversión en I+D ha pasado del 1,5% al 2% del PIB, todavía por debajo del promedio de las economías de referencia) empiece a ser un elemento estratégico.

China tiene producto de baja calidad y lo sabe, y ésto no sólo afecta a la demanda externa, sino también a la demanda interna (más de 280 millones de consumidores son de clase media-alta y no consumen producto chino, sino ue buscan producto de alta calidad procedente de la UE y EEUU principalmente), por lo que está empezando un plan estratégico para corregirlo y posicionar al país en la cabeza de la "economía de valor" mundial.

Todo un reto, que no hay duda que se llevará cabo, y en la que los países desarrollados tenemos mucho que decir y que ganar si sabemos aprovecharlo.

Actualmente por ejemplo es una excelente oportunidad para las empresas de la UE que fabriquen bienes de equipo y/o vendan servicios de consultoría de valor añadido,

Más información en esta noticia de Economía de El País

5 raons per transformar la teva organització cap a l'economia del bé comú

 

El proper 10/04/2013 a les 19h , juntament amb el Ramon Morata, que és coordinador del camp d'energia de Barcelona , fem una xerrada  sobre l'Economia del Bé Comú que organitza l'ajuntament de Sant Joan Despí.

Dia i hora :  Dimecres 10 d'Abril de 2013 a les 19h

Lloc :           Sala Aloma del centre Mercè Rodoreda 

                    C/Major, 69 - 08970 - St Joan Despí

Per als que no estigueu al corrent, l'Economia del Bé Comú és una proposta ja bastant consolidada sobre la implantació a les organitzacions (empreses i entitats públiques i privades) d'un procés de transformació de l'empresa cap a un model econòmic més sostenible, àgil i rendible.

La setmana del 10/04 vindrà a Barcelona el seu creador, el Christian Felber, per fer conferències a diferents entitats de la província de Barcelona, i és un bon moment per conèixer aquesta excel·lent eina de gestió i optimització empresarial.

Hi ha 5 motius pels quals una organització ha de plantejar-se implantar un procés de transformació cap a l'Economia del Bé comú :

1. Una organització del bé comú, és una organització que reforça el seu posicionament local i global, perquè és més innovadora, està molt més integrada en l'entorn i la seva activitat repercuteix directament en el teixit productiu local.

2. Una organització del bé comú, és una organització que optimitza els recursos de la companyia, ja que de forma sistèmica, posa en marxa mecanismes de control i gestió dels recursos amb una orientació clara a la sostenibilitat pròpia i social.

3.  Una organització del bé comú, és una organització que millora exponencialment la seva orientació al mercat, ja que el procés de transformació és exigent, i aquesta exigència ens obliga a treballar de forma més àgil i orientada a les necessitats reals del mercat.

4.  Una organització del bé comú, és una organització que consolida els equips de treball, ja que a més d'estar orientada al mercat, sobretot està orientada a les persones i això és garantia d'atracció de talent i consolidació dels seus recursos humans. És una organització més transparent i participativa, a on les decisions i els compromissos es comparteixen  en gran part per tot el col·lectiu.  

5.  Una organització del bé comú, és una organització que millora el clima laboral i la seva productivitat, ja que és una organització feta per persones i per a les persones, a on els recursos materials són un mitjà per aconseguir un fi comú : el benestar de les persones és el primer de l'organització i després el benestar del seu entorn. Ningú vol marxar d'una organització a on ell és el seu objectiu, i això incrementa el benestar laboral i l'índex de productivitat i es redueixen les rotacions de personal i el cost que això suposa per a l'empresa.

Podeu trobar més informació a Economia del Bé Comú o venint a la xerrada.

5 aspectos clave para Exportar. La solución a la recesión interna.

Si analizamos los últimos datos macroeconómicos que nos envía la Generalitat con los indicadores  de España y Cataluña de este mes de Agosto, (http://www20.gencat.cat/docs/economia/70_Economia_Catalana/documents/Indicadors%20de%20conjuntura/InformeAGOST%202012.pdf) , podemos de nuevo confirmar por enésima vez que las exportacoines están salvando a las empresas de este país, ante un consumo interno que cada vez está más deteriorado y que con las medidas (incremento presión fiscal e impuestos  indirectos, y decremento de los ingresos) parece que va a tardar a levantar cabeza.

Pero que aumente la exportación (desde el 2009 ha tenido un crecimiento interanual sostenido por encima del 2%) es algo que me enorgullece, y no porque nosotros exportemos,  pues nuestros clientes son todos del país, sinó por el número de empresas a las que estamos ayudando a hacerlo, ya que aunque sea indirectamente , algo nos toca.

Exportar no es difícil, sólo hay que proponérselo, pero hacerlo bien, sin tacañerías y con profesionalidad.

Hay 3 errores muy comunes en los que nos encontramos cuando hablamos con empresas que quieren iniciar un proceso de exportación o replantear un proceso fracasado :

1. Para exportar hay que dedicar los recursos necesarios para ello, sin tacañerías. Y es que muchas empresas creen que exportar es una cosa que se hace sola, sin dedicar los  recursos económicos ni humanos adecuados. Todo se resuelve buscando alguien espabilado que hable inglés, y dispuesto a viajar; el resto ya saldrá solo. No hace falta ser un lince para percatarse de que con este planteamiento algo falla.

2. Para exportar hay que decidir muy bien, qué producto o servicio es el más adecuado y qué país es el más idóneo para ello. Debe haber una tarea primero estratégica de análisis y luego de planificación , que son básicas. Y ésto no se lleva a cabo apuntándose a las expediciones comerciales que por otro lado son muy útiles si las sabes utilizar, y esperar que el potencial distribuidor que se entreviste con nosotros quede prendado de nuestros productos y servicios y vaya a dedicar su vida para recorrer su país y colmar nuestra  cartera de pedidos en los próximos meses.

3. Exportar supone un gran esfuerzo para nuestra empresa, y los resultados siempre serán a largo plazo. Muchas empresas piensan que los están esperando para hacerles pedidos y hacen inversiones con unas perspectivas de  ROI mal alineadas en el tiempo. Luego, cuando los pedidos no llegan, se quedan sin recursos para continuar en condiciones. Se trata de una carrera de fondo, más que nunca, y hay que tenerlo en cuenta cuando decidimos abordar un proceso de exportación.

Dentro de un proceso de exportación hay 5 elementos básicos que debemos cubrir y que aunque podemos detallar  más profundamente en otro momento, ahora es  importante enumerar :

1. Análisis y selección de productos y servicios que queremos exportar (margenes, costes, capacidad de fabricación, transporte, impuestos, etc...)
2. Análisis de la demanda de cada país para el tipo de productos y servicios (demanda, mercado, canales, competencia (local y externa), consumo, etc...)
3. Definición estrategia  de prospección y posterior implantación (Países, eventos, ferias, canales, promoción, material promocional, reuniones, condiciones distribución, etc...)
4. Análisis y utilización  de las herramientas de soporte a la exportación (misiones comerciales, ayudas económicas, informes, oficinas comerciales, recepciones, etc...)
5. Seguimiento de la implantación, que nos permita saber el nivel de eficacia de las acciones que desarrollamos, la calidad de los distribuidores, agentes, comparativa canales distribución, la efectividad de las acciones promocionales, etc...

Actualmente la exportación es una vía de recuperación para muchas empresas, y además es una evolución natural de un país con una carga de productos y servicios de valor añadido  cada vez mayor como el nuestro.

Dicen que "A la fuerza ahorcan" y aunque sea a la fuerza, con la recesión interna que estamos viviendo, ahora es una gran excusa para empezar.

China: Una balanza comercial que cada vez se acerca más a su equiibrio

Este mes de Enero, el superávit comercial de China ha presentado mínimos históricos, conun incremento de las impoirtaciones del 51% versus un 37,7% de las exportaciones.

Cada vez más la demanda interna hace de este país uno de los mayores consumidores y por lo tanto, mercado objetivo de las empresas del mundo, pero sobretodo de las Europeas, su mayor proveedor, por delante de USA.

-----------

9-month low ushers in falling surplus era

By Wang Xing (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-02-15 09:01

Increased imports, rising prices behind January's 53.5% decline

BEIJING - China's trade surplus will continue to fall in the coming months after hitting a nine-month low in January amid increased imports in the run-up to the lunar new year holidays and surging commodity prices, economists said.

The surplus fell 53.5 percent to $6.46 billion last month, the General Administration of Customs said on its website on Monday. Exports rose 37.7 percent to $150.73 billion from a year earlier while imports climbed 51 percent to $144.27 billion.

The surplus figures came hours after Tokyo confirmed China had surpassed Japan to become the world's second biggest economy.

Economists said the trade situation is challenging as the uncertain economic outlook for major economies, including the United States, Japan and the European Union, poses difficulties for China's exports.

"The trend shows that China's trade surplus is in decline," said Huo Jianguo, director of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, under the Ministry of Commerce.

China's trade surplus has narrowed in recent months as the government has tried to reduce its reliance on exports by boosting imports and domestic consumption after the world economic slowdown.

"As long as China's imports grow faster than exports, China's trade surplus problem will be solved in the next few years," said Huo.

China's annual surplus figure may drop below $100 billion in the next two to three years, he said.

The lower-than-estimated trade surplus is also expected to ease pressure from the US for greater yuan appreciation as a way of addressing the trade imbalance between the two countries.

Analysts said strong consumer demand before the Spring Festival pushed up imports.

"We believe the New Year contributed to increasing imports," said Chang Jian, an analyst from Barclays Capital.

The value of China's foreign trade in January rose 43.9 percent year-on-year to $295.01 billion, the customs said on Monday. Imports and exports rose as businesses accelerated shipments in advance of the two-week holiday period, it said.

Higher commodity prices have also played a big role in boosting the cost of China's imports, as prices for raw materials such as iron ore and copper are at, or close to, record highs.

According to figures from the customs, the price of iron ore, one of China's major imports, surged 66.1 percent to $151.4 per ton last month. The price of imported soya also increased 20.4 percent to $558.1 per ton.

"We expect world commodity prices to remain high and that will push up the cost of China's imports in the coming months," said Lu Zhiming, an analyst from the Bank of Communications.

He estimated China's trade surplus this year will drop to $150 billion, from $183.1 billion last year.

The value of trade between China and the EU, the country's largest trading partner, increased 30.5 percent year-on-year to $45.97 billion in January, according to customs figures, while the value of Sino-US trade increased 39.2 percent year-on-year to $36.87 billion.

China emerged as the leading market for US agricultural exports, according to statistics released by the US Department of Agriculture on Feb 11. But figures from the US Department of Commerce on the same day also showed that the deficit with China rose 20.4 percent last year.

Source: China Daily - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-02/15/content_12010526.htm

Interesting reading about the Growth of China economy.

Estimates, goals and fears of rapid growth on an inadequate social security services infrastructure, rural regions development and human resources investment.

In the last year the China's economy overtakes Japan's, but the China's renta per capita GPD is only about 10 percent of Japan's.

However in the next 10 years, 200 million Chinesse people will move into cities , with a potential to add 20 trillion yuan to the economy, increasing their economical capabilities.

--------------

Caution as economy overtakes Japan's

By Li Woke and Wang Xing (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-02-15 09:18

BEIJING - China still has a long way to go to improve its economy, despite formally overtaking Japan as the world's second largest economy, experts said.

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) reached $5.47 trillion last year, compared to $5.88 trillion for China, Japan's Cabinet Office said on Monday.

Japan became the world's second largest economy, after the United States, in 1968 on the back of its post-war recovery.

China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world's third biggest economy.

"It is not a surprise that China overtook Japan," said Lu Zhengwei, senior economist with the Shanghai-based Industrial Bank.

However, economists pointed out that China's per capita GDP was only about 10 percent of Japan's.

"We should not overestimate our GDP figure as China's population is 1.3 billion, 10 times bigger than Japan's," said Yi Xianrong, economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top think tank.

China's per capita GDP was about $4,300 in 2010, and income levels have been falling behind economic growth for years.

Ma Jiantang, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in January that the country has a huge population, a weak economic foundation, few resources and many people are mired in poverty.

"Therefore, while we take note of our expanding economic size and strength, we should also soberly understand that China remains a developing nation."

The World Bank estimates that more than 100 million Chinese people - nearly the size of Japan's entire population - live on less than $2 a day.

The China Youth Daily described China's expansion as an "empty happiness" as the country's economic development was at the expense of cheap labor and environmental degradation, while the quality of life, including education, social security and healthcare, still lags far behind developed countries.

Yuan Gangming, research fellow at the Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University, said that in the next three to five years, China is likely to maintain a growth rate between 8 and 10 percent.

However, for an improved quality of life and healthy, sustained growth, the country must invest more in areas such as human resources, the underdeveloped western regions, and social security, he said.

Zheng Xinli, permanent vice-chairman of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, also said the country should continue its reforms and improve its economic structure to avoid the "middle-income trap".

The term was coined by the World Bank to describe stagnation in a country when its per capita GDP reached $3,000.

"In the past 30 years, China developed because of reform and opening-up. In the coming two decades, we need more reforms to further unleash the potential of development," he said.

He predicted urbanization will be the biggest driving force for China's economy.

One person moving into a city can create economic value of 100,000 yuan, he said. In the next 10 years, 200 million Chinese people will move into cities and towns, with a potential to add 20 trillion yuan to the economy over the decade, he estimated.

Sustained economic growth in China also helps other economies in the world, including Japan.

The Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said: "We welcome China's economic advancement as a neighboring country," according to Kyodo News.

Japan's economy has benefited from China's rapid growth, initially as businesses shifted production here to take advantage of lower costs, and as local incomes rose, by tapping an increasingly lucrative market for Japanese goods.

Source: China daily - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-02/15/content_12010939.htm

Barcelona and China join forces to promote the design and fashion sector

This strengthening of relationships with the Asian country is to lead to the creation of a logistical centre in Barcelona for Shanghai-based textile companies.

To experience first-hand the potential of Barcelona's design sector and pursue potential agreements with local designers. This was the aim of the delegation of 18 Chinese businessmen who visited Barcelona on the 17th January. The visit, promoted by the Barcelona City Council and Barcelona Design Centre (BCD), and coordinated by Shanghai National Design Center, is the result of a series of actions carried out over the last few months to strengthen business relationships between the city and the Asian country.

The visit included a presentation of the city of Barcelona as international design capital, a guided tour with Barcelona Design Tour, including some of the most notable buildings from the 22@ district, and a tour of the most iconic clothes shops in the city.

In keeping with the spirit of the visit of Chinese businessmen, and with the aim of boosting the city's fashion and design sector, Barcelona Council recently sealed an agreement with the municipal government of Wenzhou for the creation of a logistics centre for textile companies from the Shanghai area.

Source: Barcelona city council.

Barcelona leads the way for Spanish exports in 2010

Its figures represent 20.5% of the total and demonstrate Barcelona's power as a driving force of the economy.

Barcelona heads the Spanish exports ranking. According to the latest report from the Barcelona City Council's Commission for Economic Promotion, Employment and Knowledge, 20.5% of the Spanish state's exports over the course of 2010 came from the province of Barcelona. The report also states that a 16.9% increase in exports during the first eleven months of the year, which represented 34,927.25 million euros worth of revenue, helped the Catalan economy grow by 4.3%.

Specifically, the increase in exports is believed to have been driven by a rise in sales to emerging economies such as South Africa (+68.4%), Brazil (+49%) and China (+32.6%). Furthermore, the technology sector accounted for some 59% of these exports.

Leaders in entrepreneurship

The City Council report also reflects the strength of entrepreneurial activity in Barcelona, which established itself over 2010 as the Spanish urban area with the highest number of start-ups, with a ratio of 3.2 new companies per 1000 residents. During the first eleven months of the year, 14% of the new businesses set up in Spain were established in the province of Barcelona.

Source: Barcelona city council.

Barcelona, inside top 5 list of european cities to do business

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE FINDINGS

The leading cities for business

■ London, Paris and Frankfurt remain the top three cities for business. The top two cities are still comfortably ahead of the nearest challengers, although Frankfurt sees its score improve.

■ Brussels moves back into fourth place ahead of Barcelona with an improved score over the year.

■ This year Vienna is the biggest mover, rising up the ranking by six places to 22nd place. Düsseldorf breaks into the top 10 for the first time, moving up by five places. As a result, German cities account for four of the top ten cities.

Key factors in deciding where to locate

■ The top four factors remain some way ahead in terms of their importance. Easy access to markets, customers or clients remains the most essential factor for the second year running. Availability of quality staff is the second most essential factor, closely followed by Quality of
telecommunications which edges further ahead of Transport links with other cities and internationally.

■ London is the top rated city in seven of the 12 major rankings, including Transport links with other cities and internationally, Ease of travelling within the city, Easy access to markets, customers or clients and Availability of quality staff and Quality of telecommunications and
Languages spoken.

■ Warsaw regains first place in terms of the Cost of staff, whilst Leeds retains first position for Value for money of offices.

■ Dublin again comes top for the Climate created by government, while both Barcelona and Berlin retain the top position for Quality of life, and Availability of office space respectively. Stockholm jumps two places to become the best city in terms of Freedom from pollution.3
Impact on business

■ The factor most likely to impact on business over the next five years is Opportunities from emerging markets for products and services. With concerns regarding an ageing population across Europe, Demographic and workforce change is the second highest ranked factor.

■ It has been a tough year for corporates across the region. Almost two thirds are more positive than a year ago, with 18% of respondents a lot more positive than 12 months ago.

Company expansion

■ Companies are still expecting to expand across Europe over the next five years, and the number of companies anticipating expansion is greater than last year.

■ Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains the most popular part of the region, with Moscow replacing Warsaw as the city expected to see the largest influx between 2010-15.

■ The number of corporates anticipating global expansion is up on 12 months ago and the focus is primarily on the BRIC economies. Shanghai and New Delhi are the most popular global destinations, closely followed by São Paulo. Beijing moves back up the ranking, and along
with Mumbai, complete the top five most popular destinations.

City promotion

■ London and Paris retain their positions as the best known cities in Europe. Brussels moves into third place, ahead of Barcelona with Frankfurt completing the top five. The proportion of those cities that are known very or fairly well improved marginally this year, with nine cities being known very or fairly well by at least half the companies sampled.

■ Berlin is viewed as the city doing the most to improve itself, jumping from third in 2009. It has overtaken Barcelona and London, although both see a higher rating than in 2009. Madrid maintains fourth place and Paris moves ahead of Prague into

Best cities to locate a business today

London is still the leading city in which to do business, with a similar score to 2009. Paris remains in second place and Frankfurt in third, with the gap between second and third

place closing slightly. Brussels regains fourth place from Barcelona, while Amsterdam moves back up the ranking to sixth place. This year the most impressive rise in the rankings is seen by Vienna, increasing six places to 22nd.

Düsseldorf moves up from 15th to 10th over the year, while Manchester also advances four places from 16th to 12th.

This year both Edinburgh and Bratislava are new cities to the ranking, and they are ranked 27th and 32nd respectively.

Top 10 list

Location Rank Score

London 1 0.85

Paris 2 0.55

Frankfurt 3 0.36

Brussels 4 0.29

Barcelona 5 0.27

Amsterdam 6 0.25

Berlin 7 0.24

Madrid 8 0.22

Munich 9 0.22

Düsseldorf 10 0.14

All information in : http://www.europeancitiesmonitor.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/ECM-2010-Full-Version.pdf

The Economist predicts 2019 for China to pass USA in nominal GDP

FORGET Monopoly or World of Warcraft. The Economist’s idea of Christmas fun is guessing when China’s economy will leapfrog America’s to become the world’s biggest. The Conference Board, a business-research group, recently predicted that China could become the world’s largest economy as soon as 2012 on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for the fact that prices are lower in China. But economists disagree on how to measure PPP. And America will only really be eclipsed when China’s GDP outstrips it in plain dollar terms, converted at market exchange rates.

Since by that reckoning China’s GDP is currently only two-fifths the size of America’s, that day may still seem distant. But it is getting closer. When Goldman Sachs made its first forecasts for the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in 2003, it predicted that China would overtake America in 2041. Now it says 2027. In November Standard Chartered forecast that it will happen by 2020. This partly reflects the impact of the financial crisis. In the third quarter of 2010 America’s real GDP was still below its level in December 2007; China’s GDP grew by 28% over the same period.

If real GDP in China and America continued to grow at the same annual average pace as over the past ten years (10.5% and 1.7% respectively) and nothing else changed, China’s GDP would overtake America’s in 2022. But crude extrapolation of the past is a poor predictor of the future: recall the forecasts in the mid-1980s that Japan was set to become the world’s largest economy. China’s growth rate is bound to slow in coming years as its working-age population starts to shrink and productivity growth declines.

Then again, the relative paths of dollar GDP in China and America depend not only on real growth rates but also on inflation and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. In an emerging economy with rapid productivity growth the real exchange rate should rise over time, through either higher inflation or a rise in the nominal exchange rate. Over the past decade annual inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) has averaged 3.8% in China against 2.2% in America. And since China ditched its strict dollar peg in 2005 the yuan has risen by an annual average of 4.2%.

The Economist has created an online chart (www.economist.com/chinavusa) that allows you to plug in your own assumptions about future growth, inflation and the exchange rate. Our best guess is that annual real GDP growth over the next decade averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. If so, then China would overtake America in 2019 (see chart). If you disagree and think China’s real growth rate will slow to an annual average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) China would have to wait until 2022 to become number one. Americans would still be much richer, of course, with a GDP per head more than four times that in China. But don’t expect that to dampen Chinese celebrations, whenever they come.

Source: The economist | Finance and Economics